{"id":17589,"date":"2023-01-10T09:57:18","date_gmt":"2023-01-10T08:57:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/market-insights-december-2022\/"},"modified":"2023-03-09T15:03:34","modified_gmt":"2023-03-09T14:03:34","slug":"market-insights-december-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/de\/market-insights-december-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Insights &#8211; December 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"17589\" class=\"elementor elementor-17589\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-748db1e elementor-section-height-min-height elementor-section-items-stretch elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"748db1e\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-background-overlay\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-wider\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-e8ffcd2\" data-id=\"e8ffcd2\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5c31218 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"5c31218\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.15.0 - 20-08-2023 *\/\n.elementor-heading-title{padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title[class*=elementor-size-]>a{color:inherit;font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-small{font-size:15px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-medium{font-size:19px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-large{font-size:29px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-xl{font-size:39px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-xxl{font-size:59px}<\/style><h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Market Insights <br>December 2022<\/h1>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2c7b52d elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"2c7b52d\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-79cab35\" data-id=\"79cab35\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ba7af1d elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"ba7af1d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-family: var( --e-global-typography-19a9c44-font-family ), Sans-serif; font-size: var( --e-global-typography-19a9c44-font-size ); font-weight: var( --e-global-typography-19a9c44-font-weight ); text-transform: var( --e-global-typography-19a9c44-text-transform ); white-space: normal;\">The Grinch stole our Christmas (and performances)<\/span><\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-e41d0c4 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"e41d0c4\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-428fc03\" data-id=\"428fc03\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1123916 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"1123916\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.15.0 - 20-08-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\tAfter an exhausting year and two consecutive months in the green for global equities on the back, investors were probably expecting a visit from Santa Claus in December.\r\n\r\nThey instead saw how a cat-like face, cantankerous, demented Grinch visited one last time their broken house. The curmudgeonly protagonist of Dr. Seuss\u2019 \u201cHow The Grinch Stole Christmas!\u201d (1957), unable to stand our risk-on attitude, decided to destroy once for all our portfolios.\r\n\r\nIt all started well, though, and we were about to open our Christmas presents. China finally decided to relax its Covid-Zero policy. The U.S. CPI report showed that inflation was moderating further (headline +0.1% in November vs. +0.3% estimates, after a 0.4% jump in October). Several Fed officials (e.g., Evans, Barr, Bowman, Powell, Cook) signaled that the central bank\u2019s pace of increases was likely to slow soon.\r\n\r\nYet, several events excited our Grinch. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped into contraction territory for the first time in two and a half years to 49.0% in November, down from 50.2% in October, reflecting companies\u2019 preparing for future lower output. U.S. PPIs surprised to the upside amid a jump in the costs of services (+0.3% in November vs. consensus +0.2%, and data for October revised up to +0.3% instead of +0.2%). The EU and G7 members implemented a price cap on Russian oil, sparking fears of retaliation. U.S. retail sales fell sharply at the start of the key holiday shopping season (-0.6% in November vs. -0.1% expectations, the biggest drop since December 2021), suggesting that higher borrowing costs and the threat of an imminent recession were starting to have an impact on household spending.\r\n\r\nThe coup de gr\u00e2ce came from our central banks, with the FOMC, the ECB, and the BoE eventually, increasing their respective lending rates by 50bp, while emphasizing that their fight against inflation was far from being over, thereby suggesting additional rate hikes well into 2023. The Fed\u2019s SEP Head showed significant negative revisions. The median projection for real GDP growth for 2023\/2024 came in at 0.5%\/1.6% (from 1.2% and 1.7%), respectively. The median unemployment rate forecast has been adjusted to 4.6% (4.4%) for 2023 and 4.6% (4.4%) in 2024. On inflation, the median estimate for core PCE was assumed to be 3.5% (3.1%) in 2023 and 2.5% (2.3%) in 2024. As a consequence, the median projection for the fed funds rate has been lifted to 5.1% (4.6%) in 2023 and 4.1% (3.9%) in 2024.\r\n\r\nThe Grinch took notice. Global equities pulled back significantly on the last month of 2022 (S&amp;P 500 -5.9%, Nasdaq-100 -9.1%, Stoxx Europe 600 -3.4%). Credit spreads widened again (iTraxx XOVER 5yr 474bps i.e. +15bps, CDX 5yr 484bps i.e. +31bps). WTI and Brent futures declined, too (-0.5% and -1.2% to $80.3\/bbl and $85.9\/bbl respectively). The only positive news is perhaps that we close, once for all, this turbulent year. Crippled by the war in Ukraine, runaway inflation and unprecedented monetary tightening policies compressing valuations, a weakening outlook for corporate earnings amid recessionary fears, as well as China\u2019s failing Covid strategy, most gauges have finished deep in the red (S&amp;P 500 -19.4%, Nasdaq-100 -33.0%, Stoxx Europe 600 -12.9%, Nikkei 225 -9.4%, HSCEI -18.6%).\r\n\r\nWishing you a happy and (more) prosperous year.\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4ff5688 elementor-hidden-desktop elementor-hidden-tablet elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4ff5688\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Hans Itburrun<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-79e74fc elementor-hidden-desktop elementor-hidden-tablet elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"79e74fc\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Chief Investment Officer,<br \/>\nHead of EAM &amp; Head of Asset Management<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ee11f77 elementor-hidden-mobile elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ee11f77\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"page\" title=\"Page 2\">\n<div class=\"section\">\n<div class=\"layoutArea\">\n<div class=\"column\">\n<p>Hans Itburrun<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5e250b4 elementor-align-center elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"5e250b4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-xl elementor-animation-float\" href=\"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Banque-Cramer-Market-Insights-Dec-2022.pdf\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Download the full document<\/span>\n\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-0a1c157\" data-id=\"0a1c157\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c1379f2 elementor-hidden-mobile elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"c1379f2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Hans Itburrun<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9be4f8a elementor-hidden-mobile elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"9be4f8a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Chief Investment Officer,<br \/>\nHead of EAM &amp; Head of Asset Management<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Insights December 2022 The Grinch stole our Christmas (and performances) After an exhausting year and two consecutive months in the green for global equities on the back, investors were probably expecting a visit from Santa Claus in December. They instead saw how a cat-like face, cantankerous, demented Grinch visited one last time their broken [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":16672,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[149],"tags":[99],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17589"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17589"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17589\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17672,"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17589\/revisions\/17672"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}