{"id":17933,"date":"2023-05-08T16:53:02","date_gmt":"2023-05-08T14:53:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/market-insights-april-2023\/"},"modified":"2023-05-08T16:53:11","modified_gmt":"2023-05-08T14:53:11","slug":"market-insights-april-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/en\/market-insights-april-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Insights &#8211; April 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"17933\" class=\"elementor elementor-17933 elementor-17919\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-748db1e elementor-section-height-min-height elementor-section-items-stretch elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"748db1e\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-background-overlay\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-wider\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-e8ffcd2\" data-id=\"e8ffcd2\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5c31218 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget-tablet__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"5c31218\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.15.0 - 20-08-2023 *\/\n.elementor-heading-title{padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title[class*=elementor-size-]>a{color:inherit;font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-small{font-size:15px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-medium{font-size:19px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-large{font-size:29px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-xl{font-size:39px}.elementor-widget-heading .elementor-heading-title.elementor-size-xxl{font-size:59px}<\/style><h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Market Insights <br>April 2023<\/h1>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2c7b52d elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"2c7b52d\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-79cab35\" data-id=\"79cab35\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ba7af1d elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"ba7af1d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Central Banks tightening cycle - mission accomplished ?<\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-e41d0c4 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"e41d0c4\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-428fc03\" data-id=\"428fc03\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1123916 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"1123916\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.15.0 - 20-08-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p>The legendary investor Peter Lynch once said, &#8220;Although it&#8217;s easy to forget sometimes, a share is not a lottery ticket&#8230;it&#8217;s part-ownership of a business.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>This quote emphasizes the importance of focusing on the underlying fundamentals of a company. Last month, we saw mixed equity markets, with some sectors and companies experiencing significant gains (US Consumer Staples +2.94%, US Healthcare +2.12% and EU Luxury +3.09%), while others struggled (US Industrials -1.22% and EU Auto -2.55%).<\/p>\n<p>The quote of Peter Lynch also illustrates the importance of companies\u2019 earnings. Since last month, all eyes are on the Q1 reporting season in the US. Q1 is expected to register a decline in YoY earnings growth for the second consecutive quarter, fulfilling the conditions for an earnings recession.<\/p>\n<p>Another parameter of current stress in the markets is the US debt limit which is being reached faster than expected. Weak tax collections in April suggest an increased probability that the limit will be reached in the first half of June. This would raise the possibility of a short-term ceiling extension, but it all comes down to the US Congress being able to reach an agreement &#8211; which is not very likely. The 1yr CDS on the USA reached an all-time high of 176 basis points higher than some HY corporates!<\/p>\n<p>Most global central banks may be either close to a peak or already done with interest-rate hiking. May could cement a turn in what has been the most aggressive global tightening cycle seen in decades. A soft March CPI YoY (down from 6% to 5%) and PPI YoY (down from 4.6% to 2.7%), coupled with weak retail sales (-1.0%), is reviving talks that the inflation battle has been won.<\/p>\n<p>The commodities complex has started to price in a weaker economic activity with industrial metals and energy prices softening during the month of April. The war in the Ukraine and supply constraints seem to be less of drivers for higher prices as well as the slower than expected reopening of the Chinese economy. This is partially helping inflation prices to continue its decline and should be supportive for the FED to achieve a soft landing and avoid a severe US recession.<\/p>\n<p>However, the fight between Bulls and Bears is still ongoing and investors expectations continue to be divided about the outcome of the current slowdown.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4ff5688 elementor-hidden-desktop elementor-hidden-tablet elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4ff5688\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Hans Itburrun<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-79e74fc elementor-hidden-desktop elementor-hidden-tablet elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"79e74fc\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Chief Investment Officer, <br \/>Head of EAM &amp; Head of Asset Management<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ee11f77 elementor-hidden-mobile elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ee11f77\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"page\" title=\"Page 2\">\n<div class=\"section\">\n<div class=\"layoutArea\">\n<div class=\"column\">\n<p>Hans Itburrun<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5e250b4 elementor-align-center elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"5e250b4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-xl elementor-animation-float\" href=\"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Banque-Cramer-Market-Insights-April-2023.pdf\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Download the full document<\/span>\n\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-0a1c157\" data-id=\"0a1c157\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c1379f2 elementor-hidden-mobile elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"c1379f2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Hans Itburrun<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9be4f8a elementor-hidden-mobile elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"9be4f8a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Chief Investment Officer, <br \/>Head of EAM &amp; Head of Asset Management<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Insights April 2023 Central Banks tightening cycle &#8211; mission accomplished ? The legendary investor Peter Lynch once said, &#8220;Although it&#8217;s easy to forget sometimes, a share is not a lottery ticket&#8230;it&#8217;s part-ownership of a business.&#8221; This quote emphasizes the importance of focusing on the underlying fundamentals of a company. Last month, we saw mixed [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":9627,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","footnotes":""},"categories":[64],"tags":[163],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17933"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17933"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17933\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17936,"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17933\/revisions\/17936"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9627"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17933"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17933"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.banquecramer.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17933"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}